How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2024?
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39
Ṁ16k
Jan 1
0.1%
2 times or less
94%
3 or 4
6%
5 or 6
0.1%
7 or more

Based on a series of questions asked by Everyday Astronaut on Twitter.

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Arbitrage https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-w-01827009d557

I made a comment here about launch cadence of Starship and using F9 launch history as the baseline. I’ll be interested to see how they line up. The prediction for this year is only another 2 launches but I expect at least 3.

https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-starship-launch-one-hundreds-t#ZeBUfYG896LApnwMD42S

Found out someone else had already done these as prediction markets. I’ll leave this one up but I won’t make the rest.

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