ELO of GPT-4.5 on LLM arena (1 month after release)
Plus
28
Ṁ10kMar 31
0.1%
<=1233
0.2%
1233-1250
0.9%
1250-1275
2%
1275-1300
0.6%
1300-1325
96%
>1325
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If GPT-4.5 never released for public usage resolves N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
If gpt-5 is released I will N/A this question. If Sam says that there will not be 4.5 I will N/A. If there is new model and general view that this is gpt-5 despite being named differently I will N/A.
Yes, this makes it quite likely to N/A. I did not think that this would be the case when I created this question, but I think this way works the best for consistency reasons
@StephenMWalkerII If there is a credible source saying that it was supposed to be named 4.5 at some point then yes, otherwise no.
Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-4.5 rank above Grok 3 on Chatbot Arena?
80% chance
Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo than #2 on the LMSYS leaderboard two weeks after it is released.
36% chance
Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
77% chance
What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
81% chance
Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?
49% chance
Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
85% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
85% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
66% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
83% chance