Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo than #2 on the LMSYS leaderboard two weeks after it is released. | Manifold

Will GPT 4.5/GPT 5 have 30 more elo than #2 on the LMSYS leaderboard two weeks after it is released.

Plus

24

Ṁ1137

Apr 10

36%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard link to leaderboard. Will measure from two weeks after it makes it on the leaderboard.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#GPT-5 Speculation

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

I'm assuming this about GPT 4.5 right - March 2025?

or is it about GPT 5 - ~June 2025?

What if they launch GPT-4.5 and GPT-4.5 Lite?

Is this asking about a 30 elo gap between it and the next chatbot?

@Paul Yeah between the next highest ranked

Related questions

When will GPT 5 be released? (exact month)

ELO of GPT-4.5 on LLM arena (1 month after release)

Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?

Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?

Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2026?

When will GPT5 be announced?

Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard

Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?

When will GPT 5 be released

Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2026?

Related questions

When will GPT 5 be released? (exact month)

When will GPT5 be announced?

ELO of GPT-4.5 on LLM arena (1 month after release)

Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard

Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?

Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?

Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?

When will GPT 5 be released

Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2026?

Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules