Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Manifold

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

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From https://metaculus.com/questions/17095/us-restricts-compute-before-2026/

Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.

Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.

Legal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment.

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Mana is worth more if this resolves yes because we are less likely to become extinct.

This would amount to the seizure of private property. No chance. It is also like saying they will cap profits on cloud services. Nope. Not ever gonna happen. Base rate <1%.

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