Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
Plus
8
Ṁ10272026
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Criteria for Resolution:
1. Developed Country:
- A country classified as "developed" by reputable international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or United Nations.
2. Establishment of Limit:
- The government of the developed country must officially establish and enforce a limit on the computational resources (compute) that can be used for AI training. The limit must be at least nation-wide.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025
7% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
18% chance
Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025?
1% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
16% chance
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)
23% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)
76% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
34% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
18% chance
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
21% chance