Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK. Also resolves YES if >67% of the technical staff of such a lab begin working for the government in a <60 day span.
A SotA model is one that is arguably the best one in the world on some dimension, including vague properties like common sense reasoning. I'll be leaning on the side of things counting, here.
Government grants and contracts do not count. The government must be in a position to directly be able to halt/direct the researcher's/engineer's work by normal managerial control. Similarly, court orders to halt due to legal issues do not count.
Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): **• Voluntary transfers (e.g. Elon Musk donating his organization to the government) should be treated similarly to government contracts and do not count as a seizure.
A lab should only be considered as having been nationalized (i.e. a YES resolution) if there is evidence of conflict, falling out, or explicit hostility toward being nationalized (i.e. not a cooperative, voluntary transfer).
This clarification applies to borderline cases like xAI, where close ties with the administration alone are not sufficient to resolve YES.**
1,000
3.00@Siebe I agree this is blurry. Given Musk's current trajectory of working with the administration, and the language of "seized" in the question description, I would not resolve that as YES unless I saw evidence that there was some kind of falling out or that xAI as a broader organization was hostile to being nationalized. If Musk effectively donates his org to the government, I would treat that as similar to a government contract. Open to having my mind changed here.
@MaxHarms hmm personally I feel like the outcome (frontier lab under control of the USG) is more interesting than the process, but it's a judgement call. I don't think anyone would "donate" a company, but I could see some kind of situation where government employees + Musk are calling the shots, Musk being heavily entangled in the USG, and using government funds & resources to support xAI, while xAI also still has shareholders although they have little say
@Siebe I agree that it's interesting whether the USG will be doing frontier research. I just think it's a different question. For example, DARPA having a frontier model would not mean YES. This question is largely about shifting control. For example, I think that if xAI was effectively under government control and not the control of Elon Musk this would plausibly count.