Will Jimmy Carter be alive when this market rolls a critical hit? [Round 2]
➕
Plus
85
Ṁ40k
Nov 29
63%
chance

This market resolves No when Jimmy Carter dies. Until then, every Friday I will ask @FairlyRandom to roll a D20. If the result is 20, this market resolves Yes.

This is the second iteration of this market. The first time, the market resolved Yes in its second week.

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It seems like somebody correctly Bayes'd this market out against the Jimmy Carter Death Markets for 2024. There is no arbitrage to be made here today.

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@MartyDettmann your random number is: 15

Salt: toeav1gvnj, round: 4562258 (signature 819122dd8e0b14de350a65e35c1b5908b1eff4ad106a3c34517cd022dc4b28293937446f4dc9498648fee498b140c666064e83346d03516d7f95db3f94d614517e63d77b233b4781bd0517d789f309fca805c7ef43ea8322528d0556ce8ab430)

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@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4562256 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4562258, salt: toeav1gvnj.

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@MartyDettmann your random number is: 18

Salt: pqt98yl1oe, round: 4542106 (signature a64fd17e1d79388ff8b91c672df8419356638f9efa165fa3a3ac77dad3c40970f56cd975104e54a226f0d646efa45cad047f4e6b9847c5990289298d428615e602a99e70fb1c1d175117c42f60c196537cc66fa04f267a2837110e19cfb21482)

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@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4542104 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4542106, salt: pqt98yl1oe.

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@MartyDettmann your random number is: 7

Salt: jlv5pz944il, round: 4521982 (signature 82a56d4352c394f7b1396fa1c18d60a1a42b2c3e2c5bb7786f1a923d7d452e094bee23d0768561cb5c8723aee3c9487a0d80f6fbc64f20f75589eaa929ba548cf54e066cb84a98fa44d3161533334a15c40b1934a51a733a02cadd7907bbadff)

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@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4521980 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4521982, salt: jlv5pz944il.

@FairlyRandom 20

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@MartyDettmann your random number is: 4

Salt: tiq20j0w15i, round: 4505802 (signature 8b1dfe7a07d0098d5bebedceede870c04b37c65a896a5b07c655f0ab58ae0f34fecc92f67981e1df6158f6f33cfa351a075638cd57d5f03475a6ec0d1470d5ac36aa724aefb2225d6cf1631874baaedaa15703ad8921f2d0d22472ccac084c2b)

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@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4505800 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4505802, salt: tiq20j0w15i.

Sorry for being late on this week's roll, I was busy Friday night and forgot to roll on Saturday (although for many of you reading this it is still Saturday as I roll this week's number).

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@MartyDettmann your random number is: 9

Salt: 2af1h4kp6u1, round: 4481489 (signature 8a349cfe6de74fc871e8eedbbccc530d16bd7e62a69a238d02d67afa3517b926532f50dd22149d8e2c9f05b0c9b0591e0cd7baa8bfdb9b0d64c40f15b40d5f390a4534dfcbca84331d1d9cda767015efe2ca2204e521210494a0851aa57f3398)

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@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4481487 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4481489, salt: 2af1h4kp6u1.

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@MartyDettmann your random number is: 13

Salt: wypjdm85vxs, round: 4461647 (signature b572ab984828ad400f1e3c5ec7d600c52dd2c22fcc70dfd5786c24d83630272e9120e70bb5270ac0a4ae7f70cf70f0a009ac754588c102b956d151bc7370cb32bc7c9dd69653f18460bab85f2ef4cefb91bbefde01aedfce3305724409c9eca6)

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@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4461645 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4461647, salt: wypjdm85vxs.

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@MartyDettmann your random number is: 16

Salt: m9duu23nq8d, round: 4441268 (signature 81403811450880a50f4c4225c27ab54d0396261797a1ea3dcc12f4ae414b8a0aff9f38cf72b9019ec0d52992b30ad8540254cfafd918d3d9ca4357cc53683f79d2a6b586a32481562095f97fc665b5d2505724b29d7840bf4e333f7a0a1d624b)

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@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4441266 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4441268, salt: m9duu23nq8d.

Did this market close prematurely?

@SkylarShibayama This market closes once a week. After rolling the random number, if it's not 20, I extend the market by a week.

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