Responses must be at least 2 or more words. Trivial responses (such as "is a" or "White House") will be N/Aed at my discretion. I want big swings! I may bet in this market.
For a market to resolve YES, it must match the full phrase in its headline as it appears in the New York version of the New York Times, as published in the corner here: https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper. It can have extra words before or after the phrase, but not any intervening words (though punctuation is fine). For example, "Biden Reelected" would resolve to YES with the headline "Joe Biden Reelected as President of the United States," but not with the headline "Biden is Reelected President of the United States". So long as the phrase is found in the headline without anything intervening, that's also enough: Something like "Green Paint" would resolve YES with "Green: Paint Found to Cause Cancer," or "Senator Mondegreen Painting a Bright Outlook on Ukraine," because "Green Paint" is in the headline (though it's through other words). It would not resolve YES with "John Mondegreen Will Paint Wall Street Red."
Answers must have been added at least 2 calendar days before the headline appeared in print to resolve yes. For example, a headline that appears on a December 31 issue will only count toward an answer in this market submitted before 23:59:59 eastern time on December 29, and an answer submitted on January 1st would only resolve yes for a headline in the January 3rd issue or later.
Much like the question this market is based on, in this market, a New York Times cover page article headline (print) is any article headline (i.e. large, bold, or separated text that precedes an article) that is present on the front page of a daily print edition of the New York Times, and does not include subheadlines (the smaller text underneath the large, bold, or separated text).
For example, the February 27, 2024 cover page has the following cover page headlines, and only these headlines:
"As Sweden Joins NATO, Bloc Asserts Its Resolve"
"Delays in Data Make Housing Riddle for Fed"
"Weary but Hopeful, Ukrainians Are Unbowed"
"Biden Is Losing Party Loyalists Over Gaza War"
"$1 Billion Gift to Make Tuition At Bronx Medical School Free"
"The Business of Child Care Is Back on the Brink"
This question is heavily based on this question:
1,000
3.00
@Marnix How are you checking these? Seems like a bear to manually look through the front page image every day.
Odds are a little high given the number of non-qualifying alternative phrasings they could use e.g. Trump is convicted, Trump guilty, Trump found guilty, guilty verdict for Trump, conviction for Trump etc
@TheAllMemeingEye and it was none of these! It was "Jury Convicts Trump on all 34 counts" (or technically it would have been "Guilty," but)
I've missed, like, a month of these, so i've gone back and taken a look at the headlines. Here's what I found:
4/21/2024 - "Swimmers Tested Positive, Then Won Olympic Gold"
4/25/2024 - "Concern Increases as Evolving Bird Flu Infects More Mammals"
5/28/2024 - "A Bellicose Ally Eyes a Top Job if Trump Wins"
And "Trump Wins" gets a surprise resolution! What might be next?
We FINALLY have our first resolution, thanks to this headline from the 12th!
@suzumebatchi Actually I think this resolves YES! The resolution criteria is about the print edition cover page which you can see here. In fact, I think A1 is the front page, and A2 is the first interior page when you open the paper.
Tagging @Marnix
@TylerJohnston Unfortunately not - this one was added after that headline had already been published, so it'd need to be a headline from the 9th or later!
@Marnix Do you have a policy on the set of headlines at the bottom of the page under the black line? My market excluded them but I realize now that the NYT website considers them in the "front page" section (but not on page A1). And of course, they are physically on the front page.
I assume you exclude them as well given the example from the resolution criteria, but wanted to double check.
@TylerJohnston I haven't been checking those at all, so I feel like I'll probably go with excluding them. You do make a good point, though.
Another weekly check, and... Nope. Still nothing! I'm almost considering lowering the time from 48 days to 24 hours, which should still be pretty hard to get around.
@Marnix I say keep it as is! The market is currently predicting dozens of resolutions with better than 50% odds. Either lots of resolutions will eventually pour in, or this is a very poorly calibrated market with lots of alpha in voting current entries down :) I'd be curious to see how it plays out either way. Then if it becomes a market where everything is running at e.g. 10%, loosening the resolution criteria would keep things interesting.