Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.
Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.
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3.00Traders, be careful not to buy YES on options you think WILL happen by EOY 2025! It's the opposite, so read the description carefully to understand which way you ought to bet to match your beliefs.
Wait, it's a double negative... What won't happen? Ukraine joins Nato. I say "yes", I'm saying it won't happen, I say "no", I'm saying it will. Yes? Damn...
Does “T will end DST” include “permanent DST”? Seems like people are a little vague about that, usually understanding “end DST” means just picking a standard and not switching clocks twice a year anymore. (A bit like the contradictory phrasing of this market, come to think of it :) )
I don’t personally think he’s gonna do anything, but voting out of hope.
“Evergrande's liquidation could take more than a decade to be completed, according to some offshore investors”: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/evergrande-liquidation-law-firm-probing-pwc-others-potential-claims-sources-say-2024-06-14/
I don't think this will happen while the war is still ongoing, and I don't think Putin would willingly accept a peace deal without some promise that Ukraine won't join NATO.
So this can only happen if Ukraine is convincingly winning the war, and that will require a long slog at best. It won't happen this year unless Russia's economy suddenly collapses somehow.
Traders, be careful not to buy YES on options you think WILL happen by EOY 2025! It's the opposite, so read the description carefully to understand which way you ought to bet to match your beliefs.
I'll send you 200M to partly make up for it, and i'll pin a comment explaining to read the description carefully ig
I bet NO because I thought there is no way Ukraine is joining NATO, then I saw the questions was actually inverse, so I bet YES. then I sold my shares in NO and made an instant 3 profit. go figure.
answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet
whyy
@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market
What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00