What WON'T happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

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Ṁ7517

2026

84%

Ukraine joins Nato

67%

Evergrande liquidation completed

54%

Officially supported Netflix app releases for the Apple vision pro

53%

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher

50%

A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.

45%

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married

43%

GPT-5 released

Donald Trump becomes US president again

Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.

Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Traders, be careful not to buy YES on options you think WILL happen by EOY 2025! It's the opposite, so read the description carefully to understand which way you ought to bet to match your beliefs.

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boughtṀ150 YES

@RS You may have misread the title?

bought Ṁ250 NO

I'll send you 200M to partly make up for it, and i'll pin a comment explaining to read the description carefully ig

sold Ṁ40 YES

@Bayesian Doh! 🤦🏽‍♂️

Could you capitalize WON’T in the title? I almost bet wrong

bought Ṁ2,110 NO

@Arcmage7000 bitcoin is at $65k

Somaliland?

sold Ṁ5 NO

I bet NO because I thought there is no way Ukraine is joining NATO, then I saw the questions was actually inverse, so I bet YES. then I sold my shares in NO and made an instant 3 profit. go figure.

answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet

whyy

@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market

@Arcmage7000 it is massively confusing.

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