Resolves YES if there is a government shutdown with furlough, full or partial, due to Congress failing to pass a continuing resolution or some other form of spending package in January 2026.
1,000
3.00A note: The latest CR that is expected to pass the house this week extends funding through Jan 30.
Jan 31 is a Saturday, so any immediate and partial furlough that takes effect then to make this resolve yes would likely involve National Parks employees.
I think conditional on another lapse this would be a given? I don’t know if there is a technical detail on furloughing that would cause it to be otherwise (I did read on Wikipedia of a past example from 1990) . Maybe other bettors would be willing to clarify this.
Regarding the conditional, I would speculate unless there is a large shift in polling in the next two months I imagine it will be very difficult to summon enough party unity again so soon for another month(s) long shutdown fight (which is what I believe would be necessary to achieve anything).