Similar market for potential arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/Ryannn/will-australia-announce-the-establi?r=TWFk

Will Australia announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?

79% chance. Australia signed the Seoul Declaration and Statement of Intent toward International Cooperation on AI Safety Science.

Here from the AI safety institute market; would you count the establishment of such an institute as significant? Or would it depend on what the institute does/what powers it has?

@Nat it would depend on the nature of the institute. For example, an institute that would later propose legislation is an obvious NO. An institute that approves every single AI thing on a case by case basis is an obvious YES.

I intend it to be on at least the same level as that US executive order from last year.

Does this include AI related regulations introduced by state or territory governments, or only the Commonwealth? (Not that I believe that state governments will lead on this.)

@AndrewDonnellan as per the description, if 75% of states/territories implement it. That said the 75% is based on vibes, maybe I mean more like 75% of the population is covered. I have added (by population) to the description.

If NSW, VIC, and two other states implement something along the same lines as the US executive order or the EU legislation I'd be inclined to resolve YES.

@Mad whoops not sure why I somehow missed that sentence in the description!