Will we have a FOSS equivalent of GPT-4 by the end of the year?
Will we have a FOSS equivalent of GPT-4 by the end of the year?
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Ṁ4545resolved Jan 3
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With this much excitement and energy in the LLM space, I am fairly confident in this prediction: Before the end of this year, there will be an open source model that is equivalent in quality to #GPT4 Then, AI researchers and the AI community will go to town and improve it.
(https://twitter.com/KevinAFischer/status/1637214737451855874)
Resolves positive if a FOSS model (no signup required to download) is pubically available by 12/31/23 that outperforms GPT-4 on at least 50% of the tests listed in this article (https://www.semafor.com/article/03/15/2023/how-gpt-4-performed-in-academic-exams)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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