This question resolves to whatever the president or general secretary states to identify. [Meaning a trans woman would resolve to yes.]
If China or Russia splits up, this question will resolve according to the split with the biggest population.
If the countries further don't have a president or general secretary, I or a moderator are free to judge which position comes closest to it, and it will count as a matter for this question.
The closing time might be extended.
Will Russia have its first female president before the US?13%
Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?13%
1,000
3.00Nine women have ruled Russia in the last thousand years according to this (though probably not all were defacto rulers), most recently Catherine the great in the eighteenth century. Only one woman (Wu zeitan) has every ruled china (and that was in the 7th century). So on priors Russia is at least ten times likelier to have a female ruler.
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What is this?
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Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00