When will the first Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to include a woman be chosen? | Manifold

When will the first Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to include a woman be chosen?

Basic

3

Ṁ50

2048

8%

2027

23%

2032

23%

2037

23%

2042

22%

2047

There has never been a female member of the Standing Committee.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/23/world/asia/women-china-party-congress.html

This will resolve NA if no woman has become a member by 2048

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ40 NO

NA if no woman by 2048 is bad market design, because if that's the case, and I bet say no on the 2032 option, and I'm right, then in 2048 the mana I won from being right gets taken away.

@Fedor yes, I broadly agree with you now. When I made this question (quite a long time ago I think), I believe that I was worried if I added a "not before" it would swamp the rest, but that was an inexperienced concern

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