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I will resolve according to publicly available information and my best judgment.
Will be resolved at end of 2025 at the latest.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform", the creator has specified:
An oil refinery is not considered a power plant.
The market refers to gas offshore platforms.
Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform', a power plant must be for civilian use.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would resolve this market to YES if the Israeli government dissolves for any reason before the market's end date.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a potential bombing of the Fordow facility, the creator has specified their evidence standard for resolution:
A statement from a single political figure (e.g., Donald Trump) is not sufficient on its own.
The creator requires confirmation that the facility was destroyed before resolving.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to a 'successful bombing' of the Fordow facility, a strike will not be considered successful if the centrifuges are not destroyed.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers proposed by users, the creator has stated they will resolve the answer based on the proposing user's terms and decision.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer for the Fordow facility bombing:
The creator will wait for a proper damage assessment before resolving this answer.
This assessment period could take weeks or months.
The current IAEA statement is considered insufficient for resolution.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to an 'attempt to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified that:
A proposal that is 'merely declarative' is insufficient for a YES resolution.
There must be an 'honest attempt' to 'actually push negotiations'.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal', the creator has specified the following conditions for a YES resolution:
There must be reports of actual ceasefire negotiations.
The negotiations must include both sides of the conflict.
China must be mediating the negotiations.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed', the creator has specified their evidence standard:
A claim from Iran, especially if supported by weak evidence like an AI-generated photo, is considered insufficient.
The creator will look for confirmation from the Israeli Air Force (IAF).
Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Fordow facility successfully bombed', the creator has decided to resolve it to N/A due to what they judged to be unclear resolution criteria.
1,000
3.00@JoshuaWilkes June 2025 is over?
Edit: you know what, I'm just dumb, ofc if the ceasefire holds it'll resolve YES.
I wish there was a feature to spin off these props by the creator into their own market instead of having to navigate here and search for them each time. Or the viewer has the option to mark it in a way where it gets its own page to track independently of other bets.
I'm lookin at Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister) and it's a pain each time to see if anyone has bet on it.
Hopefully it is okay to share here, but I have another prop bet market for world conflicts outside of just the Iran-Israel war for those interested:
https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027?r=QmxhY2tDcnVzYWRl
I don’t think most traders here get how likely this has become post-war.
Reasoning: gov’t is getting close to its end, ruling coalition likely to use the war for favorable election framing.
@Lemming This shall not yet be resolved. Nobody knows so far if a bombing was successful or if other bombings follow.
@DaniellqdC6 I’ve decided to resolve as NA due to criticism of unclear resolution criteria. We can create a new answer with more spine criteria.
@Lemming This should resolve YES.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250624-iran-israel-war-latest-developments
Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 610 civilians, Iran's health ministry said on Tuesday.
@zsig HRANA doesn't agree at this point
I would say HRANA would be biased toward more liberal estimates, but perhaps a bit less biased than Iran's Health Ministry.
If you take the average of both you do end up with 513 however
@BlackCrusade Does Iran have a track-record of lying about civilian casualties? Else I think it's pretty clear-cut.
@zsig I am not aware of them lying in the past. I only present the alternative source to present doubt ;)
@BlackCrusade I’ve decided to resolve as NA due to criticism of unclear resolution criteria. We can create a new answer with more spine criteria.
@Lemming resolves YES
Prop bet: “Donald Trump declares victory.”
Recommended resolution: YES — resolve now
Why it satisfies the condition
What counts as “declare” — an on-the-record public statement by Trump using the word “victory.”
On 25 June 2025, at the NATO summit in The Hague, Trump said the cease-fire ending the Iran-Israel war was “a victory for everybody.” That phrase is an explicit declaration of victory, satisfying the literal wording of the prop bet.
Rock-solid source for the market creator
Reuters, “Trump declares Iran ‘victory for everybody’ despite doubts over damage,” 25 Jun 2025.