World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027
71
Ṁ8748
2027
94%
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
93%
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
88%
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
85%
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
81%
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
76%
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
75%
Donald Trump remains President of USA
68%
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
67%
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
66%
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
66%
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
64%
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
63%
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)
63%
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
61%
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
61%
Sudanese Civil War ends
60%
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
59%
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
59%
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
58%
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

I will not bet on this market.

Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market. Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.

This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.

I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion. I tend to pay attention to international news.

All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.

I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.

To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.

I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to. If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

  • Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

  • Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether a suicide linked to a chatbot would count for a hypothetical prop bet, the creator specified their resolution criteria:

    • There must be a direct correlation between the AI's actions and the death.

    • The AI must be behaving like a rogue AI (maliciously, unpredictably, or contrary to its programming). An AI acting as it was designed would not meet this bar.

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bought Ṁ1 YES

Uh, out of curiosity, what is the world conflict angle with magnetic fusion?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen a major advance in energy technology could have impacts on political conflict, for better or for worse.

If a major state suddenly reduced its dependency on oil or coal for energy, this could have large implications for conflict in the Middle East.

"China is the only one capable of influencing Iran. Iran would collapse without China buying its oil," - Israel’s Consul General in Shanghai urges China to curb Iran’s military and nuclear ambitions.

Cosmos-2558, the Russian inspector spacecraft that has been tracking the US 326 satellite for a long time, recently launched an unknown object, most likely a highly maneuverable subsatellite with onboard high-speed kinetic anti-satellite weaponry.

Israeli courts postpone Netanyahu's corruption trial at request of Donald Trump.

The upcoming 2025 BRICS Summit is scheduled for July 6-7.

Resolves YES

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-protesters-call-prime-minister-paetongtarns-resignation-2025-06-28/

Largest anti-government protest since 2023

Triggered by border dispute, leaked phone call

Government facing possible no-confidence vote

Bruh

Poland's parliament has approved the withdrawal of Poland from the Ottawa Treaty on the prohibition of anti-personnel landmines, citing the threat of Russia.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/27/drc-and-rwanda-to-strike-trump-brokered-peace-deal-all-to-know

Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are expected to sign a United States-mediated peace deal on Friday following several months of conflict that has killed thousands of people and displaced millions in resource-rich eastern DRC.

Earlier in April, the US Department of State released conditions that would guide the negotiations, although it is not confirmed if they were included in the final agreement. They were categorised as such:

  • Sovereignty: Both sides agreed to recognise and respect each other’s territorial borders.

  • Security: Both committed to not supporting any armed groups and to establishing a joint security mechanism to target militias.

  • Economic issues: Both countries agreed to use existing regional framework structures, such as the East African Community, to expand transparent trade and investment opportunities, including those to be facilitated by “the US government or US investors” in mineral supply chains, hydropower development and national park management.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/world/europe/israel-iran-enforcement-policy.html

He said Israel’s policy would be similar to what it has done in the aftermath of its war against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. The United States brokered a truce to end that war as well after Israel killed most of the group’s leadership.

Since then, Israel has bombed targets in Lebanon frequently, even though Hezbollah has refrained from attacks on Israeli territory.

Mr. Katz told another network, Channel 13, that Israel’s policy on Iran would be “like in Lebanon — just times 100.”

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, warned that “Iran is not Lebanon,” in an interview with state television on Friday.

“We do not accept any cease-fire or halt in operations that implies an agreed-upon arrangement,” he said, adding that he had “serious doubts” about Israel’s commitment to the deal.

He pointed to Israel’s frequent airstrikes in Lebanon and Mr. Netanyahu’s decision to break a cease-fire with Hamas in March to restart military operations in the Gaza war.

“They declare a truce, but assume that the other side is weak, then proceed to violate it themselves and attempt to prevent any response,” he said.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@BlackCrusade this happened before market creation so I assume this specifically would not count, but to clarify would something like this count? https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/chatgpt-obsession-mental-breaktown-alex-taylor-suicide-1235368941/

@TotalVerb I have a hard time saying this event would resolve to yes. Rolling Stone also tends to be a pretty "bad" source for news due to their strong editorializing and sensationalism.

I can see how this event could possibly resolve this yes, but I have difficulty directly correlating the AI's actions to the death, and difficulty with this meeting the definition of a rouge AI (behaving maliciously, unpredictably, and/or contrary to it's initial programming). The AI did what LLMs do in this case; it was being a sycophant which is, as I understand it, playing directly into how it was aligned and programmed.

If the AI had gone out of it's way to convince someone to commit murder without being manipulated (prompted) into doing so and the person interacting with the AI did so, I would say that would be a clear YES resolution. The key is that the AI "chooses" to manipulate the person rather than just playing into their strange roleplay fantasies as that directly contradicts alignment and programming.

I reserve the right to be wrong 😉

And yes, this happened before the market opened, so this specific case would not resolve this.

@LiBrandon how would I resolve this?

The only resolution I could give this question is NO or N/A since I wouldn't exist to be able to resolve to YES

I find it fascinating that nukes are more likely than these other questions.

@BlackCrusade I don’t understand this one. Jordan has already recognize and has a peace treaty with Israel. Could you explain?

@Lemming Jordan is not currently a signatory on the specific "Abraham Accords" treaty. This would resolve YES if they become an actual signatory of this specific treaty.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@BlackCrusade my point is that Jordan could not become a signatory without breaking ties with Israel in the first place.

The whole point of the agreement is normalization of relations. Do you find this a plausible scenario? This is akin to US signing a peace treaty with Mexico.

@Lemming I don't find it to be a high or even medium probability scenario, though I cannot predict the future. I predict that this should trade below 10%. I don't just add questions that I think may resolve yes, I like the idea of the "wisdom of the crowds" as a tool to take the temperature of international situations.

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