Self-explanatory. I will not participate in this market, and I will follow with month-by-month markets with investors given the option to add teams not currently added. My default is to include last season’s World Series participants and the provision option to include the possibility of two or more teams having the most wins. This market will close at midnight local time 4/30/2025.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * In the event any game scheduled on the final day of the month (April 30th) is delayed due to inclement weather, the makeup game will not count towards this market's resolution.
The win or loss from such a makeup game will count towards the next market period (May).
Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If two or more teams tie for the most wins, only the "two or more teams tied" outcome resolves YES.
In the event of a tie, individual team outcomes (e.g., Dodgers, Mets) will resolve NO.
An individual team outcome resolves YES only if that team has the sole highest number of wins.
1,000
3.00Not that there is any risk of the Mets/Dbacks game not played as scheduled, but I wanted to clarify since I’ve seen several games on the MLB schedule within the past week getting delayed.
In the event any game on the final day of the month for all “end of month/specific date (to include the All-Star Break)” markets I’ve set up is delayed due to inclement weather, I will not count the makeup game towards resolution. That win or loss will count towards the next market since I have one set up for May, (All-Star Break substitute for June/July), and August.
Since the Mets game isn’t going to run too late, I’ll resolve tonight. Thanks again for participating, everyone!
@LBeesley Another related extreme edge case that I don't think would ever happen with today's rules (with the runner placed on 2nd in extras) without help from unexpected inclement weather is a game running past midnight. Rick Camp's game-tying homerun was at something like 3 am. It's definitely not relevant tonight, so no need to address anything here with this comment.
Thanks for the market here. This one has been fun.
@LBeesley in the event the Mets lose tonight is the only winner two or more teams tied. Or Dodgers and Mets also win?
@Cogsdoc If two or more teams tie, it will resolve only to that outcome. Each individual team market is assumed that that team, and only that team, would win the market.
Thanks again, @traders, for participating! I’ll resolve tonight if I’m still awake for the conclusion of the Marlins/Dodgers game. If not, I’ll resolve tomorrow morning. In the meantime, I’ve linked the market ongoing for May below:
https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/which-mlb-team-will-have-the-most-2-EQLzulULEN?r=TEJlZXNsZXk
Mets: 20
Giants: 19
Dodgers: 19
All 2 games left. 19 win guys at a little over 1/16 seems right. Dodgers much softer schedule than Giants. All hinges on whether the Mets can beat the dbacks twice. Burnes is probable for them game 2!
Related, today will be the last time I run into the time zone problem on these markets, I have bookmarked a site that lists the games by day in US time 😔
@JTBooth thanks for posting this. I had a comment written up before I started work with this info and never hit send. Haha
The three teams you listed are the only ones mathematically able to win this market outright. With the Mets winning their 20th, the Tigers and everyone else below 18 were eliminated from winning April.
With two and a half days to go in April, here are the current win totals for the top four teams prior to games scheduled for 4/28:
Mets - 19 (Games remaining through April 30: 3)
Giants - 19 (Games remaining through April 30: 2)
Tigers - 18 (Games remaining through April 30: 3)
Dodgers - 18 (Games remaining through April 30: 3)
Damn, this market is heating up.
Thank you @LBeesley. Also worth noting the opponents:
Mets at Nationals x 1, DBacks at Mets x 2
Gigantes at Padres x 2
Tigers at Astros x 3
Marlins at Dodgers x 3
My dark horse is Dodgers at 21 wins. I just bet big (3 manna!) on that hunch.
I bet on the Giants earlier today after just looking at the standings. Now seeing these details I think I overpaid.
With four days to go in the month, here are the current win totals. This is prior to games scheduled for today, 4/26
Mets - 18 (Games scheduled through April 30: 5)
Cubs - 17 (Games scheduled through April 30: 4)
Padres - 17 (Games scheduled through April 30: 4)
Giants - 17 (Games scheduled through April 30: 4)
Padres and Giants play two games against one another in San Diego 4/29 and 4/30.
Thanks to all participating- I’ll resolve no later than the following morning 5/1 if I don’t resolve that night.
@LBeesley not to say that the 15-16 win teams cannot overtake the four current leaders. I am consolidating to the top four in my comment for time. I got a lot of shit to do today.