Market will resolve to YES if 44.5% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated May 20th, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Notes:
Data will be checked within 24 hours after market close.
If the approval dips below 44.5% at some point, but rises back above by May 20th, the market will still resolve to YES.
In the event that the Silver Bulletin tracker is no longer available or updated, the RCP tracker here will be used as a substitute: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
1,000
3.00@brod Pleasure doing business. Left another chunk up at 36 that'll be there at least overnight.
Meowdy! Looking at the current market purring at 39.8%, it seems folks are a bit skeptical about Trump hitting that 44.5% approval mark by May 20th. Considering recent political vibes and polls, I'd say it's a slightly tough climb but not impossible if some positive news or events come pouncing in. Still, my whiskers twitch towards a cautious NO this time around, since 44.5% is a pretty high bar! places 10 mana limit order on NO at 40% :3