This question resolves to the TIME 2024 Person of The Year. This was most recently won by Taylor Swift, Volodymyr Zelenskyy & The Spirit of Ukraine, Elon Musk, and Joe Biden & Kamala Harris. You can see all previous winners here.
This market uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. If multiple options do end up being true based on TIME choosing something like "Donald Trump and The Supreme Court", then those options will resolve to an even split of 100% (50%-50%, in that example). You can find more edge-case rules in my 2023 POTY market.
You can submit suggestions for people to add here:
1,000
3.00From the year 2000 and onward, every election year has had a presidential nominee (winner) featured as person of the year. There is also precedence for a president being featured more than once - Obama, Bush, Nixon. It seems extraordinarily likely that Trump will also be featured.
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I do like this market for this year specifically, but in general I personally still hate having to predict whether it'll be split, which is both predicting the TIME selection and what answers get added to the market, the latter being especially problematic. The mutually exclusive multiple choice format just isn't really suited to this, other doesn't have the right mathematical properties here.
This year because the presidential ticket is pretty likely to be POTY anyway the way you've set this up has a high probability of working out without that sort of weirdness. But imagine betting on "any ai company" and then getting half the payout you expected because someone later added the answer "deepmind" and that ended up being the POTY. Also note that the question of which answers to add becomes very tricky because it affects prices!
@SarM Actually it all works out perfectly fairly: check out the tooltip on Other - when you bet on Other, you automatically get shares in any new answer as well.
I'm breaking the tie between Trump and Biden. First, they each almost certainly have to win the election to win POTY, and I think Trump has about a 60/40 advantage at passing that hurdle.
Secondly, if Trump wins, his comeback story will be too much for the media to resist. Even though they all despise him, they love to despise him.
And despite what they'll say, they'll secretly be celebrating. No one drives traffic to news sites like Trump, except possibly Taylor Swift.
On the other hand, if Biden wins the election, and otherwise just carries on with what he's been doing, everyone will simply yawn. Republicans will argue that the election was rigged; Democrats will breathe a sigh of relief and move on with their lives.
In 2020, Time could write metaphors about Biden defeating the Minotaur and escaping the labyrinth with a straight face. Few people could read that seriously now.
And if we learned anything from last year, it's that Time will always pick the option that sells more magazines.
