Trump should be resolved yes?

I assume you intend this to be 2023 through 2028?

Yes!

That should have been phrased better; perhaps "the people behind AI"

See below! You sure that 2024 won't be a repeat of 2020 if Biden and Harris win the election?

The vice president usually doesn't win it. She won it that time for being the first black woman vice president.

Fair argument!

@Joshua That would require that

1. Biden chooses Kamala as his running mate again

2. Biden gets elected (currently ~55%)

3. Time Magazine chooses him again

I'd say combined probability is definitely lower than 30%

I doubt that they would give the award to "artificial intelligence" generally. If they are going to give a "person of the year" award it seems more likely to be to a specific personality such as ChatGPT or a future model that we don't know the name of.

I'm trying not to be too picky about synonymous non-human answers here, because multiple answers can resolve to 100% at a time. But here's my general approach: If ChatGPT or Gemini wins, Artificial Intelligence also wins. But if ChatGPT wins, Gemini does not win.

@Joshua ah I see

@DylanSlagh

I doubt that they would give the award to "artificial intelligence" generally. If they are going to give a "person of the year" award it seems more likely to be to a specific personality

Agreed but of course there is an exception to this too: 2006

"You" was the official choice for Time's Person of the Year in 2006. The magazine set out to recognize the millions of people who anonymously contribute user-generated content to websites such as YouTube, MySpace, Facebook, Wikipedia and other wikis, and the multitudes of other websites featuring user contribution

Wikipedia

@firstuserhere They don't seem to have a problem giving it to a group of people and I'm guessing they might give it to a "non-human" artificial intelligence. But I doubt they would do both things at the same time! (a group of artificial intelligences)

If they do "You" again should I just resolve every answer to yes? 😅

@Joshua if "AI" wins, is chatgpt resolved as yes?

And if "the AI builders" win, that is not resolved as yes for AI/chatgpt, correct?

@Joshua By your logic, if Sam Altman wins then "The AI builders/engineers/scientists/leaders" should also win because Sam Altman is an AI leader, is that right?

So the resolution criteria state: "Any abstract concept/group that I judge to be synonymous with an abstract concept/group that is named Person of the Year will also resolve Yes."

The intent is that I'm being generous for cases where the POTY is not a single human being. When it's a single human being I'm only going to resolve that single human being to Yes.

@Joshua sounds very reasonable tbh. I think it's really stretching it to say that "The AI builders" is the same as Sama

@Joshua I also don't think that ChatGPT is a synonym for AI.

"Selling not enabled in this market mode" lol

Until they fix that glitch, you can just buy the opposite of your position to sell.

@Joshua oh I know! (not that I'd be selling any of my lucrative NO position on every single option)

The new US president is customarily the person of the year in election years. You should remove that limit order unless you're sure Biden isn't winning next year.

@Joshua TIL.

People keep buying him down even after this comment though, so maybe the market really thinks there's a chance they break with tradition!

@Joshua well, there is a good chance he passes away or is too feeble to become president. The 14% for Kamala Harris seem to point in this direction.

Wait great pont, Kamala is super undervalued there! In 2020 they gave it to Biden and Harris both, it'd be weird if they gave it to just Biden in 2024.

@Joshua ah shit, I keep leaving money on the table in this market 😂😂