Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
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342
Ṁ180kJan 2
19%
Jean-Marie Le Pen
17%
Jimmy Carter (99)
13%
Dick Van Dyke (98)
12%
Mel Brooks (97)
12%
Clint Eastwood
11%
Noam Chomsky (95)
11%
Eva Marie Saint
11%
Michael Caine
10%
George Soros
10%
David Attenborough (97)
9%
Sylvester Stallone
9%
Woody Allen
9%
William Shatner
9%
Bruce Willis
9%
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud
9%
Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama
9%
TSwift's cat (Benjamin Button) (from the 2023 POTY cover)
8%
Pope Francis
8%
King Charles III
8%
Mitch McConnell
Feel free to submit the names of any living public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of survival for. Any duplicates or non-public-figures will be N/A-ed. If someone on this list has died, I will resolve their name to YES. At the end of 2024, all remaining names will resolve to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Joshua Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif are confirmed dead at this point though multiple outlets
Please consider adding Willie Nelson after the next cull. He has even self-memed about it “The Internet said I had passed away”
@ZaneMiller Manifold changed the rules about how many options could be in a market and people had added a bunch of options taking up space that I thought made the market worse
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