Will the first human to achieve a FIDE chess rating of 3000 be genetically enhanced?
Will the first human to achieve a FIDE chess rating of 3000 be genetically enhanced?
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Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - The official FIDE rating system will be used to determine a 3000 rating. Changes to the rating system will not affect the resolution as long as it remains the official FIDE rating system. (AI summary of creator comment)
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Cool question! How does it resolve if a change of the rating system or some other circumstance makes a 3000 rating trivial?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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