Who will be the first chess player with FIDE rating surpassing Magnus Carlsen?
Who will be the first chess player with FIDE rating surpassing Magnus Carlsen?
Plus
20
Ṁ7512026
14%
Fabiano Caruana
3%
Hikaru Nakamura
3%
Ding Liren
1.6%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
4%
Alireza Firouzja
1.6%
Wesley So
71%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@AmmonLam this is quite specific question, is there a way for you to add options, there are many talents on the rise that are not listed here, such as Prag, Gukesh, Abdusattorov, Giri ...
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2025?
Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
60% chance
Who will be the highest-rated chess player at the end of 2026?
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2025?
79% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2029?
40% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2027?
45% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
60% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2028?
29% chance
Who will be the first chess player to reach 2900 FIDE rating?
What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players?