Will there be any genetic modification which substantially reduces suffering in vertebrates by end of 2026?
Plus
16
Ṁ3002027
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I recently heard about the far out initiative from ACX grants. Will there be good evidence that they or someone like them succeeds in genetically modifying a vertebrate to suffer much less by the end of 2026?
In the event of a difficult resolution, I'll resolve to my best judgement. I will not bet on this market. Comments are welcome to try to persuade me.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will some factory farmed animals be made incapable of experiencing any physical or psychological suffering, by 2030?
15% chance
Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?
36% chance
Will meat from animals that have been bred to feel little or no suffering be commercially available by 2044?
19% chance
Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *total* AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?
12% chance
Will there be a year, before 2030, in which *total* AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?
29% chance
Will gene editing have cured at least one major disease by 2025?
95% chance
Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?
53% chance
Will there be a year, before 2030, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?
32% chance
Will there be a credible (see details) announcement of human multiplex gene editing (≥5 genomic loci) pre 2026?
34% chance
Will there be an in-vivo gene therapy that edits multiple genes at once approved anywhere in the world before 2030?
52% chance