You could also run a survey yourself via positly.com.

Twitter sentiment analysis done manually by you seems very unlikely to be an accurate reflection of global sentiment towards gene editing for serious genetic diseases.

Why don't you find a better measure of this and resubmit the question?

Eg you could restrict it to the USA (or anywhere else with regular reasonably reliable population polling on things like this) and use a nationally representative poll by a reputable (subjectively judged by you/the commenters) polling organisation on a roughly equivalent question (adds a lot of noise as small question changes lead to big changes in results).

The above still isn't great but is better than the current one I think.

@WXTJ I think the correct solution would be to post another poll with the resolution criteria you like. Since there aren't any very great measures, having multiple markets looking at various measures is a good thing.

"When I look at statements of popular opinion, will at least 90% be positive or neutral"

90% is REALLY high. As a reference point, only 88% of adults say the benefits of the massively -lifesaving MMR vaccine outweigh the risks. And that was back in 2019, before the covid-induced vaccine panic.

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2022/

If we're going by trusted opinion polling, no way is anything like gene therapy going to >90% support.

Do GMOs and vaccines and "social media" count as "seen as uncontroversial goods," or no? Almost certain 1% of the population in 2030 will find gene editing to be racist / a crime against god and nature / evil transhumanism / a plot by google's AGI to enslave humanity / something

Polling are hard because there are a lot of ways to phrase polls and the phrasing deeply affects the outcome, often by a factor of 2. Looking at twitter or social media is much worse, because there's also 'who saw this, who wrote this, what time was it posted at, what community was it in' bias

You could imagine 98% of the population thinks gene editing is good but 2% dislike it, and the 2% are the only people who talk about it on twitter. The first search result for 'vaccine' (by top) on twitter rn is "Over 70% of Americans took an experimental vaccine with no safety or efficacy data simply because the government told them to. We are screwed as a nation." The second result for vaccine (by latest) is 'Can people not see that the vaccine is fucking killing people at a rapid pace? #deepstatecrimes'

Similarly, if you look at discussions of social media, lots of people say they hate social media. Almost exclusively for things that were true of newspapers and pre-iron age tribes or rumor networks, but the sixth post on 'latest' for social media is "Social media already effs with our mental health already like nobody needs that" and the tenth is "but my brain is pressured by social media standards and I can't bring myself to do so". from nbc, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-americans-give-social-media-clear-thumbs-down-n991086 . "Overall, 36 percent of adults view Facebook positively, while 33 percent see it negatively. And Twitter’s rating is 24 percent positive, 27 percent negative.". This doesn't really mean anything, but w/e.

Most of those people use facebook/twitter!

bought no just so i get notifications, no clue what the market should actually resolve to

@jacksonpolack These are persuasive arguments, and I have changed my position.