Background François Bayrou was appointed Prime Minister of France by President Emmanuel Macron on December 13, 2024. The appointment comes during a period of political instability, with no single party holding a majority in the National Assembly. Bayrou, a centrist leader, faces the challenge of navigating a divided parliament and maintaining support from various political factions.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if François Bayrou holds the position of Prime Minister of France on the morning of March 1st, 2025. The market will resolve to NO if Bayrou is replaced by someone else before this date.
Update 2025-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Clarification: If François Bayrou has resigned (i.e., is a 'premier ministre démissionnaire') but has not been replaced by someone else on the morning of March 1st, 2025, he is considered as still holding the position.
Resolution: The market will resolve as YES unless he has been replaced by someone else before that date.
1,000
3.00I would not have bought NO if had been careful to read the ambiguous criteria 5 days ago. Large part of this is of course my own fault. I should not have traded in the market at all. Because of this I won't get into an argument, but will just register a protest at an interpretation that someone having relinquished the duties irrevocably still holds the office. I will not take it any further as I am only the second largest position on NO.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Exactly. It needs clarification because currently as stated both "holds the position" and "is replaced" can be false at the same time.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen you're right, that's what you get when you use the stupid manifold-recommended ai to write the criteria 😊. Let's say that if he hasn't been replaced by someone else, the market will resolve as yes. Stated differently, "premier ministre démissionnaire" is considered as holding the position.