81% here but 65% there: https://manifold.markets/Ibozz91/what-will-be-the-next-un-member-sta

Also: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/27/political-deadlock-frustrates-bougainvilles-aspirations-of-independence

Arbitrage with: https://manifold.markets/Shrill/will-a-new-country-be-recognized-by

Will a new Country be recognized by the UN before 2030?

64% chance. Resolves YES, if the country is added here: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/newest-countries or a similar official website, and is officially recognized by the United Nations, otherwise resolves NO.

Is it just me, or should this be clearly strictly larger than the below market?

@Lorxus Not necessarily: the Bougainville market's conditions on international recognition are potentially weaker (e.g. Taiwan is considered a country there but wouldn't pass here)

@MartinModrak With Bougainville recognized by both itself and Papua New Guinea, I'd be surprised if it didn't get ~widespread int'l recognition - but I suppose it could account for a gap of a few percent?

@MartinModrak Sure but then you're assuming near-zero probability of other new internationally recognized countries come into being, or becoming recognized.

Transnistria and Taiwan are top candidates?

@BTE just the opposite, those are on the verge of annexation.

The top candidates are us federal government collapse leading to state governments.

@BTE "Must be largely undisputed"

Too vague!

I don't see why? If you Google "newest country", South Sudan is consistently the result. Wikipedia says that South Sudan is "the most recent sovereign state or country with widespread recognition as of 2023". Seems pretty straightforward to me.

If people really want a more specific guideline, how about going by whether it's listed here?

Related market

https://manifold.markets/B/will-there-be-a-new-unrecognized-co

Would an independent Scotland count as new or is this already a recognized country (just part of UK)?

@marktweise I suggest no

@NathanpmYoung Why? I don’t see how you could argue Scotland seceding from the U.K. wouldn’t count as a ‘new’ country (assuming its internationally recognised, which is likely if it follows from a referendum).

Well how internationally recognized do we mean?

For example, South Ossetia is recognized by Russia and Nicaragua. Is that enough to count? Or do we need all of the UN to recognize it. Or just a plurality of the UN?

@DavidSchwartz a simple definition could just leave it up to whether the US recognises the new country, or whether the UN gets a new member. I suppose those are decent alternative markets someone could create!

Would Taiwan count? Would Kosovo count?

@Conflux and how bout Vatican City while we’re here

@Conflux Isaac said that Kosovo wouldn't count. Which makes me wonder, what's the most recent new country that Isaac would count? South Sudan has far from unanimous recognition.

If Papua New Guinea and Bougainville both agree, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be internationally recognized, so this should be trading near or above the Bougainville market, right?

@Conflux Yes, it does seem like Bougainville is the main candidate country here.

Besides states that resulted from the cia or catastrophic collapses of existing governments, I don't think any real countries have been created since 1965 or so.

@MarkIngraham No. Czech Republic and Slovakia.