Will any supercomputer reach 1 zettaFLOP before 2035? | Manifold

Will any supercomputer reach 1 zettaFLOP before 2035?

Plus

23

Ṁ2000

2040

82%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Historically, it takes about 10 years for the top supercompter's computing power to increase by 3 orders of magnitude. From Wikipedia:

(The red line is the top supercomputer of the time, in gigaFLOPs. The top of the graph is 0.01 zettaflops, so another ~3 dectuplings are required.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ24 NO

Depends what the definition of a supercomputer is. Is the bitcoin network a supercomputer?

While the historical trend is remarkable, energy usage might put limits on growth. Current fastest systems consume >20 MW, with all the high cost, heat dissipation issues etc that come with this.

Related questions

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

-16% 1d9% chance

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025?

Will the November 2024 top 500 Supercomputer list put us above 10 Exaflops of total computing power?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Related questions

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Will the November 2024 top 500 Supercomputer list put us above 10 Exaflops of total computing power?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules