Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025?
Basic
8
Ṁ639Dec 31
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?
57% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs
89% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
90% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs
83% chance
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs
86% chance
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States?
87% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2025?
77% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?
44% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
82% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
82% chance