Wearables, Home and Accessories
Wearables includes smartwatches, wireless headphones and spatial computers. The Company’s line of smartwatches, based on its watchOS operating system, includes Apple Watch Ultra 2, Apple Watch Series 10 and Apple Watch SE . The Company’s line of wireless headphones includes AirPods , AirPods Pro , AirPods Max and Beats products. Apple Vision Pro™ is the Company’s first spatial computer based on its visionOS™ operating system.
Home includes Apple TV , the Company’s media streaming and gaming device based on its tvOS operating system, and HomePod and HomePod mini , high-fidelity wireless smart speakers.
Accessories includes Apple-branded and third-party accessories.

Year ending 28 Sept 2024
Wearables, Home and Accessories $37.005 Bn is on a downward trend from 39.845 bn and 41.241 bn in the previous 2 years
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/c87043b9-5d89-4717-9f49-c4f9663d0061.pdf

3 months ending Dec 2024 $11.747 bn is only slightly down on previous years $11.953 bn

So it seems Vision Pro has not halted that decline and Apple accounts are not treating Vision Pro as a separate segment that will report information like revenue.

https://www.pocnetwork.net/technology-news/apple-halts-production-of-its-vision-pro-headsets-due-to-lack-of-sales/

The company now believes it has enough stock to last through the end of the year or even to the end of its lifecycle.

Questions about whether 500k units will be sold in first year have resolved no.
Doesn't seem encouraging.
I guess still wait for more clarity?

Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

How Many Units Will Apple’s Vision Pro Headset Sell In The First Year?

320K expected. “Bank of America expects Apple to sell 1.5 million units of the Vision Pro in its first year, while Wedbush expects first-year sales of only 150,000 units” [1] “KGI Securities analyst Christine Wang said she expected shipments of 200,000 in the first year, while Credit Suisse predict…