Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025?
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Resolves @mods

@strutheo Source?

@EvanDaniel searching around now, https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-hits-12-billion-annualized-revenue-information-reports-2025-07-31/ seems to pretty conclusively imply OAI must have had >1B revenue so far I think? the topline figure reported there is annualized. but it would be almost impossible to reach 12B annualized in July without 1B up through July, plus "The figure implies that OpenAI is generating $1 billion a month"—for that to be the estimate in July, it seems impossible for OAI to have had ~no revenue for 6 months and then nearly 1B revenue in under a month so that you can get a monthly estimate that OAI hasn't yet reached over 6 months.

with an inactive creator, and very broad resolution, I'll resolve this YES, as we are never going to get exact #s from OAI and I can't figure out plausible math that could fit this report without OAI being >>> 1B so far this yr. but if anyone disagrees/has other sources LMK.

What was the deal with people taking large NO bets here?

bought Ṁ50 YES

Not sure why someone decided to crater this market, but considering that openAI already has hit a 2 billion revenue milestone, it would be weird if they earned less than 1 billion next year

bought Ṁ150 NO

@No_ones_ghost they could close down ig

According to different sources, OpenAI will have $1 billion in revenue in 2025.

  • The generative AI market is expected to grow from USD 11.3 billion in 2023 to USD 76.8 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 31.5% (Markets and Markets).

  • OpenAI’s partnership with Microsoft has provided access to capital and data, creating a high entry barrier for competitors (Research Contrary).

  • OpenAI is generating more than $80 million in revenue per month, compared to just $28 million in the entire year 2022 (Reuters)

@GabrielChouraqui I agree with this analysis.

Forecasting OpenAI's revenue in 2025 is a complex task with many variables and uncertainties. Without access to OpenAI's current detailed financials, any analysis would be speculative. However, given OpenAI's rapid growth, particularly the success of products like ChatGPT and DALL-E, it is quite possible to envision the company reaching or exceeding the $1 billion mark in revenue by 2025.

Of course, market competition, technological advances, regulatory changes, and global economic conditions will have a significant impact on OpenAI.

Additionally, while OpenAI's current trajectory appears promising, relying solely on its past and present accomplishments may not be enough to make accurate predictions. Diverse data sources, such as industry trends, investment patterns, and comparative analysis with similar companies, can provide a more nuanced perspective. Additionally, the use of different statistical methods, such as scenario analysis or Monte Carlo simulation, may yield more reliable predictions.

Overall, OpenAI is likely to realize $1 billion in revenue by 2025.

Was this written by ChatGPT? 😶‍🌫️

OpenAI Passes $1 Billion Revenue Pace as Big Companies Boost AI Spending
Aug. 29, 2023

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