What will OpenAI do in 2025?
26
Ṁ6370
Dec 31
94%
Release an IDE (Windsurf or other)
86%
Release GPT-5
72%
Be beaten by Google in text generation on the "Humanity's last exam" leaderboard
60%
Release a significant update to Sora
54%
Make another aquisition/merger other than Windsurf and io for >1 billion USD
50%
Release another developer model like GPT4.1
49%
Give equity to Sam Altman
34%
Create a new different state of the art learning algorithm
23%
Announce or release a social media platform
17%
Convert into for-profit
14%
Build AGI internally
Resolved
YES
Implement better memory across all chats

  • Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A key condition for actions by OpenAI relevant to this market is:

    • OpenAI must be recognized as inventing it (e.g., the product, discovery, or concept).

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Ṁ1,000
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For any new cool answers created (different from the ones listed, about something interesting and reasonably likely) of OpenAI I'll personally send 300 mana to the creator!

@patrik Must be them who are recognized as inventing it.

@Fynn What would qualify for this? Could you make it more precise?

@patrik Any of therese would qualify:

~same quality as Sora but at least 6 times cheaper,

much better quality and coherence (like hitting 1175 Elo on this leaderboard),

generating videos of 4 minutes or longer at the ~same quality as Sora


Would not qualitfy: just adding image to video / video to video on the ~same model, increased rate limits

@MarkusFlicke Isn't that what Sora does?

@patrik Damn you're right. I wasn't caught up on that.

@MarkusFlicke Since no-one has bet yet I have renamed to something more sensible

bought Ṁ10 NO

For any new cool answers created (different from the ones listed, about something interesting and reasonably likely) of OpenAI I'll personally send 300 mana to the creator!

@patrik I'll send it to the 10 most interesting.

@patrik 2/10 already sent out

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