Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028? | Manifold

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Basic

37

Ṁ2017

2028

90%

chance

1D

1W

1M

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1,000

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3.00

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bought Ṁ30 YES

Compared to mid 2023? Yeah think so

Train from scratch or finetune?

Roughly $80-$1,000 to raise llamas

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Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

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The cost of any LLM model's training cost exceeds Gemini Ultra's $191M by end of 2025

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

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