Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
Plus
39
Ṁ15722101
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
including tests; metaculus definition
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@traders this is a notoriously inactive creator -- I suggest we extend the resolution date to 2100. I'm going to do that now, but if you have a strong and compelling consensus opinion that this should not be done, you could try to convince it to close at the end of 2023 instead.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before strong AGI?
85% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
11% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before GPT-5?
20% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
36% chance
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
54% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
48% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated during 2024?
11% chance
Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?
Will we get AGI before WW3?
70% chance