What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2024?
➕
Plus
277
Ṁ120k
Jan 1
38%
OpenAI
20%
DeepMind
20%
Anthropic
5%
Cavendish Labs
4%
XAI
4%
DeepSeek
3%
Meta
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Other

2022: OpenAI, Stability.AI, Deepmind

Based on twtr buzz, search trends, etc.

Resolves ~50/30/20;

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
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bought Ṁ15 YES

long deepseek

@mods as gigacasting is long off the site, may want to step in here before EOY to clarify if this market will be NA-ed or if a mod is going to handle the extremely subjective resolution

@Ziddletwix We'll just do a subjective resolution

Specify the resolution criteria and whatever 50/30/20 means please

@GregMister I suspect "50/30/20" means that it resolves 50% to the top AI lab, 30% to the 2nd, etc. but I am not certain.

just u wait

Anyone else get errors trying to bid on some of these?

If they're at zero you may need to use a limit order

With llama 3 400b it's wild to me that meta is only at 6%

sold Ṁ25 YES

Google Brain and inflection are both subsumed by deepmind and Microsoft respectively, right?

Google Brain no longer exists, it's been merged with Deepmind to create "Google Deepmind".

Right - should those be n/a?

I mean people can vote for obviously wrong things if they want, it just means more mana for us.

bought Ṁ25 YES

2/3 will probably be decided on vibes if OAI is #1

but DM has a small chance to be #1

and DM is probably #2 under an objective view

but Anth could release a good LLM or they judge could be particularly safety minded

Lol I'm unable to vote yes on Microsoft

@wrhall You can do it with limit orders

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