Resolves yes if xAI is commonly perceived as being in the same tier as OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic on January 1, 2025.
Inherently subjective, but factors to be considered are: funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media, and its CEO's presence alongside other major lab CEOs at major meetings with e.g. world leaders, plus anything else that seems pertinent.
Resolves no if the criteria are never met, or if they're met, but xAI goes bust or gets absorbed by a pre-existing top lab before the close date. If xAI gets bought by a then-not-major lab/player (e.g. Apple), the market resolves yes if the criteria have otherwise been met.
I won't trade in this market.
1,000
3.00I’d like to petition to consider “number of papers published in highly reputable venues like ICLR, NeurIPS (not just arxiv tech reports) and how many citations they get” as part of your resolution criteria.
Most major players in this space have strong, well-regarded, highly cited publications (Google, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI Baidu etc etc). As a new lab, Xai needs to clear this hurdle and it remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to do so.
Resolves YES (not really). Even the explicitly high bar of @RickRadewagen has been met.
yes – they're now in the top 3 model creators, behind only openai and google https://x.com/lmsysorg/status/1823599819551858830
@0xSMW LMSYS ranking, especially as Goodhart's Law comes into effect, is a poor proxy for "funding, technical breakthroughs, new foundation models, mainstream products, mentions alongside other top labs in media" etc.
they are satisfied but xAI fails to materialize due to bankruptcy or acquisition by an established competitor prior to the deadline https://spacebarclickergame.io/