
Will AI be considered safe in 2030? (resolves to poll)
Basic
5
Ṁ2102030
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
In every field of relevance—early is the same as wrong.
Will doomers look like fools in 2030?
An honest poll will occur as to whether “AI” has demonstrated any semblance of existential risk
(Or it turns out that domesticated models are as dangerous as domesticated cats.
Same as the GPT-2, GPT-3, and now GPT-4 releases where nothing major happens, all the worry cases fail to occur.)
Related questions
Related questions
In 2025 Jan, the UK AI summit will have been effective at AI safety? [Resolves to manifold poll]
40% chance
Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?
86% chance
Will there be Ai in 2030
79% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
8% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
75% chance
Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?
5% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
68% chance