Will there be a general consensus among economists that markets significantly overvalued AI companies at any point during this decade?
This market will close early and resolve as YES if there is clear evidence of a bubble before the resolution date. It will resolve as NO if there is still no clear evidence of an AI valuation bubble by the resolution date.
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3.00@Mad2live I'm not sure, but probably not. What causal factors could lead to a recession? A recession would effect retail investment, likely lowering the valuation of AI companies but might not effect hyperscale infrastructure development or force hyperscalers into bankruptcy. While AI hyperscalers like CoreWeave have exploded in valuation so have aerospace and defense contractors like Rhienmetall, for very different reasons.
CoreWeave is already down 50% from its high, does that mean the bubble already burst? The 2000 dotcom bubble wiped out half the companies competing in the space. Many companies that had been dominating completely folded.
The resolution condition is "Will there be a general consensus among economists that markets significantly overvalued AI companies at any point during this decade?"
Robert Shiller defines financial bubbles as periods of "irrational exuberance" where investor enthusiasm, social contagion, and narrative-driven speculation drive prices to unsustainable levels. Are retail investors consumed by the irrational exuberance now? Is Nvidia significantly overvalued right now?
Record number of S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” on Q1 earnings calls
https://sherwood.news/business/number-of-s-and-p-500-companies-mentioning-ai-hits-record/
"An education tech startup has "hired" an AI avatar of the late computer science pioneer Alan Turing as a made-up executive, in what seems like a sure sign that the AI bubble has jumped the proverbial shark."
Arguably platforms are far from overvalued, as are de novo disruptors, but the YC class was one of the most laughable in memory.
“Expedia. But with AI” — good luck with that.
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Minor scandal yc funnels half its money to DEI and another half of the remainder to companies with no network or platform effects.
When 100% of their wins (and all tech wins) come from the platforms
I don't think it will be a bubble per say - but I think there will be lots of money spent on dumb things. I just think the value will overshadow the bubble-type-hype.
Edit: I no longer believe this. Far more hype is being sold than value.