When will the first human colony be established in Alpha Centauri | Manifold

When will the first human colony be established in Alpha Centauri

Basic

9

Ṁ66

9999

50%

Other

11%

2100

12%

2050

20%

2075

4%

Not before 2200.

3%

Never, humans go extinct before colonizing Alpha Centauri.

1.5%

2150

If not resolved before my death, I will pass down responsibility to my children, and impress upon them the importance of keeping this market up-to-date.

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Does this count non-biological (aka digital) humans? I sincerely doubt we'll see any extra-solar-system colonization by squishy fragile mass-overloaded meat humans. Much more likely to send a Router Probe over then download some EMs via laser pulse.

Depends on how human the digital humans are. If they are LLMs, then probably no. If they are uploads then yes. If they grew up in silico, then I don't know. I think if they have human parents, and their development & brain architecture are fairly standard, then definitely yes.

@MartinRandall I will not say this is unlikely to happen. But I will say this is stupid to bet on.

@Gunneone I am paying an insignificant cost in mana to express my opinion on an important social issue. Which can still be stupid, but not more than other answers.

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