This market predicts whether Trump's approval rating be at 30% or higher on January 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the average of approval ratings from Gallup and FiveThirtyEight on that date. If his approval is at 30 or higher, the market resolves as YES. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.
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3.00I'm not sure how useful this question is. Trump's approval rating never dipped below 37% in his first term. As for Gallup specifically, it never dipped below 34%. Considering he's gained popularity since his first term, and is more experienced now, I pretty much guarantee that it will be 30% or higher at the end of 2025
@PeterNjeim not sure we disagree, but also not sure we’re here for the same reason. I saw a pundit make the prediction and I was curious to see how people would price it. Expected it to be high, didn’t expect it to be this high, tbh
"Exceed 29%" and "at 30% or higher" are two different things, unless you round to the nearest integer. Change it to "will equal or exceed 30%"
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00