What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?

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Ṁ2398

2029

83%

One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

75%

Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

56%

Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

41%

The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

40%

One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

31%

3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

28%

Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

25%

Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party

18%

5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

11%

Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?

Please feel free to request additional answers to be added. I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.

I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them. Maybe a separate market for that?

For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other. If they sit as an independent, that doesn't count. However, if they sit as an independent for a very short amount of time (let's say 72 hours) before joining the other party, that does count. For the purpose of these answers, it's still a "defection" even if it wasn't their choice. In other words, if somebody is kicked out of their party, sits as an independent for a day, then joins the other party, I'm counting that as a "defection", even though it's a slightly unusual use of the word.

For the ones about "coordinated" defections, I will judge whether I think it was coordinated. If it's a joint statement, obviously that's coordinated. If it's within a few days of each other that's probably coordinated. If there's a week or more between each defection it's probably not, unless their statements make it sound like it is. If you think this is too woolly, don't bet on these options.

I won't bet in this market.

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#️ Politics

#UK politics

#🇬🇧 UK

#UK Conservative Party

#Next UK General Election

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How are you handling former MPs in this? Andrea Jenkyns has just announced she's going to be standing as a mayoral candidate for Reform.

@Noit for the answers that say "conservative MP", that person needs to be an MP at the time of their defection for it to count.

We can add broader versions as well if we can think of clear ways to word it

bought Ṁ85 YES

Not sure if people just haven't noticed or if the criteria are confusing, but this option should be less than or equal to the "weak electoral pact". If they run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies then they run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies.

Little bit of free mana for whoever finds this first.

The questions could be better worded.

I am able to edit the wording if you have any ideas

Instead of "run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies" have "run one candidate between them in >=530 constituencies".

Hmm, maybe that is a little clearer. Is 530 the right number? 650 minus 100 minus northern Ireland minus speaker? Assuming they don't do another boundary review and reduce the number of constituencies...

Very interesting question! I'm sure there will be an interesting ongoing interaction between Conservatives and Reform, as they are largely competing for the same voters, and under FPTP they would do better not running against each other.

See also this market that asks a single question with carefully defined criteria:

https://manifold.markets/TallUntidyGothGF/will-the-conservative-and-reform-pa?r=Rmlvbg

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