I think Reform are unlikely to ‘win’ as such due to the First-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system, which essentially means that an increase in the share of the popular vote doesn’t translate automatically into seats. Generally, FPTP means smaller parties like Reform are unlikely to gain enough seats to form a government even if they have a lot of votes. It is possible that they will go into coalition with the Conservatives and ‘win’ in that way, but I still wouldn’t rate this probability very highly: what I would say is more likely is that the Conservatives go further to the right in order to get Reform votes. I also think it’s possible that Nigel Farage is taken in by the Conservative Party.

The trouble with Reform is, although it does seem to have popular appeal, it’s still pretty disorganised on the whole and is essentially very dependent on one man (Nigel Farage). As things stand, I’d say that if he defects, the party is dead. We have seen precedent with this in the past: when Farage left UKIP it became much more fringe and less popular.

@aristotle_135 https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-top-the-yougov-votin

People might want to bet YES on Farage here given this market is so high: https://manifold.markets/Greyhawk/who-will-be-the-next-british-prime

Reform has the worst vote efficiency you could possibly imagine

@nikki I think the market % represents this reasonably well considering they are #1 in the polls but the market is at <20%.

If I was betting on the market, I would agree that at this current point in time the probability is lower than 20%. Reform is essentially a protest vote & since Starmer is currently unpopular they’re picking up opinion points. The most likely outcome is by the next election the main parties return to their places and reform drops back down, but reform will have a few years to try to come up with a way to turn those people into real voters, and it’s possible they could do it.

I presume this will also be N/A if there is no Reform party?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I wrote out a very long response to this to give N/A criteria - but I’ve deleted it.

I think what is truest to the meaning of the market is that this doesn’t result in an N/A.

If the question was something like “what percentage of fielded reform candidates will win their seat”, it would make sense because the data to resolve wouldn’t exist, but the factors that would lead to reform not existing in any way whatsoever by the next election would most likely be the same factors that would lead to them losing. In many ways it would simply be them conceding even before the election.

I can’t think of any possible scenarios, but if what leads to their non existence is entirely, 100% unrelated to their performance as a party, and entirely out of the control of the party itself, there may exist extremely niche examples in which I would N/A.

I think this is a good opportunity though to talk about the opposite of this:

If the reform party renames, but keeps its key people, structure, and core political beliefs that new form will be the subject of the market.

If the reform party (or its new identity) has a single MP candidate running in the next general election, the market will continue as it is. It will even continue as it is if the party doesn’t have any candidates, but does still exist in any real way.

@LukeShadwell personally I think if Reform ceases to exist it will not win the next UK election, so it should resolve NO.

@JoshuaWilkes that’s what this says. It will resolve no if reform ceases to exist, still resolving after the next election

@LukeShadwell actually I was thinking of the case wherein Farage takes over the tory party

@JussiVilleHeiskanen gosh. Seems unlikely to me but it should still be covered by the criteria. In that case I think the truest thing to do for the market would for it to have no effect on it.

The market is about reform and not Farage - though I entirely understand that there are pros and cons to this and ideally the market would encapsulate all of the reasons someone would bet yes and no.

Farage being a part of the party or not won’t affect the resolution or whether it’s N/A. If he became leader of the tories and won this market would still resolve NO.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I’ve created an alternative market that tracks Farage specifically, feel free to bet on there as well or instead: https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-a-party-nigel-farage-is-a-memb

Reform now topping the YouGov voting intention poll. It's yet to be seen whether this rise will keep going, or if it will look at all like this by the next election, but it's certainly significant.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51511-voting-intention-lab-24-ref-25-con-21-2-3-feb-2025

I have sold all my shares in this market, to ensure my resolution is fair.

It would be cool if you could edit the market description. Not everybody reads the comments, though they should

Beautiful sight:

(today I spoke to an economic refugee of the UK due to the terrible mismanagement by the Labour/Con regimes)

@AlQuinn what difference a fortnight makes, eh? Now Elon is braying for Farages head.

@mods this is tagged "UK General Election 2024". Everything under this tag should either be closed or changed to "next UK general election" or "UK general election 202X" or something.

@TomFinnie Removed the tag, good spot

Are you defining "win" as "most seats", "majority of seats", "forms the next government" or in some less conventional way?

Win as in forms the next government. In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds. This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.

@LukeShadwell aw damn, I just realised I missed your edit lol. Personally I think being the junior partner in a coalition should be NO, not cancel but I guess it's your market. Luckily I realised this before I dumped a few k on NO just now. :)