How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
Premium
14
Ṁ23k2027
95%
>= 100
93%
>= 200
89%
>= 300
79%
>= 500
60%
>= 800
27%
>= 1300
12%
>= 2100
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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