How many confirmed Mpox deaths will there be by the end of 2025?
Plus
8
Ṁ84482026
99%
>= 300
91%
>= 500
63%
>= 1000
33%
>= 2000
20%
>= 5000
Resolved
YES>= 250
Cumulative confirmed deaths, as reported by OWID. If OWID is not publishing up to date data, an alternative source will be used, with an attempt to replicate OWID's sources (WHO data) and methodology. Total death worldwide, since the start of the May 2022 outbreak.
As of the final report for 2025 dates.
2024 version: /EvanDaniel/how-many-confirmed-mpox-deaths-will
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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