
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
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138
Ṁ62k2027
57%
chance
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Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.
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Note that this market uses the NBER declaration to resolve positively. Comparing to the real money markets below that use different definitions, we can extrapolate that the implied probability of a 2025 recession according to NBER should be significantly lower than ~60%.
Polymarket (NBER or 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP): 57%
Kalshi (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP): 61%
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