As CEOs get removed or quit, we'll take them out and mark them 0. Once we get down to just three left, they will all get marked as 100% and the market will be over!
Out means not CEO anymore. That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc.
If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.
If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.
If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.
If the company has no CEO, they must at least still be the clear single solo leader.
Note: this market type does NOT auto-adjust percentages. Logically, the total of the above should be 300%, but it won't be. This means that there is lots of likely arbitrage to do on this market most of the time, to the extent that you have tight estimates you believe in.
Prices will not auto-adjust so you'll have to control arbitrage yourselves.
Update: one gone, 19 left.
Part of the 2023 CEO Tontine Markets:
CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
CEO Tontine - which one of these 19 CEOs will be out first?
CEO Tontine - which one of these remaining 18 CEOs will be out next? Others will zero
1,000
3.00Ages via chatGPT not confirmed:
Andy Jassy - 55
Bob Iger - 71
Doug McMillon - 57
Dario Amodei - 40
Elon Musk - 52
Jensen Huang - 60
Linda Yaccarino - 60
Ma Huateng - 52
Mark Zuckerberg - 39
Masayoshi Son - 66
Mary Barra - 62
Pat Gelsinger - 62
Shantanu Narayen - 60
Sundar Pichai - 51
Tim Cook - 63
Warren Buffett - 93
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00