Does Wales count?

@ChristopherRandles the market splits out England and Scotland, so it is aware of the choice not to include Wales. So I'd say no

@ChristopherRandles oh no, there is also missing info on whether this is bout the current nation named exactly "Ireland", the island itself, or some other thing.

Is a partially submerged bridge ok ?

The Oresund bridge has some tunnel portions to allow shipping through, but people mostly call it a bridge.

(same question applies to all of these bridge markets)

@Odoacre https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it there is some discussion of this question here.

For simplicity I've gone with requiring it be above water

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

16% chance. At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track Connecting each sides mainland, not islands (Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine) You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries Update 2025-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification: The project must have no remaining required unfunded or unplanned steps at the time of resolution. This means that all necessary steps must be fully funded and planned without any outstanding components.