If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Plus
6
Ṁ9642029
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to this question if Trump is elected in 2024, otherwise NA.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
If elected, Trump says Xi will not invade Taiwan: ‘He knows I’m crazy’
😂 though does saying that his insanity is a deterrent undermine the deterrence value? (BTW, I think McDonald Trump's unpredictability on foreign policy is the #1 reason to support him, having seen Obama & Biden lose much of Ukraine to Russia)
Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
34% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
34% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
48% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
32% chance
Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
39% chance
If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?
21% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
33% chance