Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
Basic
14
Ṁ12102026
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@PhilipR Not a raid by some few special forces, but e.g. an effort to take control of the island by many units.
Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
30% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
32% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
26% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
21% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
48% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
33% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of November?
1% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
8% chance