Home grown means the model should be trained from scratch by a Chinese company. The computer can be outside of China, can use any sort of hardware, the data could from anywher, but the model should not be a distilled or finetuned version of open source models developed by other country, but should be well-known for trained from scratch by the company itself.
Competitive means the home grown model leads or ties to one of top models from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic from the Chatarena board.
1,000
3.00@jacksonpolack i don't know how this market should resolve or not, but I know the original market creator specifically created this market in contrast to this one: https://manifold.markets/Ledger/will-china-be-competitive-in-the-ll. Market creator has several comments there explaining their thinking.
@jacksonpolack creator already deleted his account. He accused yi-lightning of being a distillation of llama. At the time, GLM-4 also was ranked higher than anthropic. So either this market should’ve resolved yes or all Chinese models are distillations of llama.
Yi-34B had the same architecture as llama but afaik there’s no evidence to suggest yi-lighting was a distillation of llama 3.1
@jacksonpolack Having read the previous thread, I think that the creator wished to depart from the previous question by requiring the model to not be a distillation/finetuning of another model. In this question, “well-known for trained from scratch” is an important phrase which, at least to my limited knowledge, isn’t met yet, as it’s at best opaque as to the training procedure.
tl:dr: I think the market has not met the criteria for YES.
Can you clarify if the decision is made based on the state at 2025/12/31, or if at some time before then the “competitive” criteria is met for some duration.
Does the Yi Lightning model count, and if not, what exactly is the threshold? It is beating GPT 4o and Claude 3.5 in Chatbot Arena.
@mods OP’s account is deleted, but (depending on interpretation) this question might already have met criteria to be resolved Yes.
Edit: compare to this very similar question that resolved yes once Yi Lightning hit the leaderboards: https://manifold.markets/Ledger/will-china-be-competitive-in-the-ll